City Races Start Now

Whether or not you quarantine brain is ready, it’s past time to think about November.

The Presidential election is shaping up to be a referendum on the incumbent’s handling of the coronavirus crisis. Still, there’s a lot of time between now and Election Day for the unpredictable Trump to shift the race.

Here in VA, there are Congressional races with important national implications. Politicos are particularly interested in the Virginia 7th, where first-time incumbent Abigail Spanberger will try to hold off one of two state legislators, Nick Freitas or John McGuire. A loss by Spanberger could indicate the limits of the Blue Wave we’ve seen in recent elections.

But just like in the last Presidential election year, RVA will probably be most affected by what goes on within city limits. The 2016 election brought us a new Mayor, new blood on City Council, and an almost entirely new School Board.

Change is on the ballot again this year.

Mayor Levar Stoney faces a strong challenge from City Council’s Kim Gray, with local attorney Justin Griffin lurking as a wild card. Stoney will try to make this election about his record – not just his handling of the health crisis, but building schools, fixing potholes, and making the city bureaucracy work better. For his opponents, though, the election is all about Navy Hill. The failed development project is the unpopular albatross around Stoney’s neck; this fall’s campaign season will show us just how heavy it is.

Races for the city’s two key legislative bodies are still shaping up. There’s not a lot of buzz about the School Board election, but that’s not surprising; I don’t envy the Board right now. The quarantine, and resulting budget deficits, will make it even harder for leadership to address the school system’s ongoing challenges. Superintendent Jason Kamras probably is the more influential education figure in any case, and his response to the crisis may define this fall’s Board campaigns.

Besides, for my money the City Council races are where the action is. When a bloc of council members defeated Stoney’s Navy Hill proposal earlier this year, they showed their willingness to assert their authority over city politics in a way we haven’t seen in a while. So the Council races might be the most important for the future of the city.

Leadership changes are definitely on the way. Gray must leave the Council to run for Mayor, and Council Veep Chris Hilbert is stepping down. Plus two longstanding members might get a serious challenge. In the 6th District, Ellen Robertson likely will face local organizer Allan-Charles Chipman, a major presence in the loose coalition that helped stop Navy Hill. And Amy Wentz, one of the folks behind Richmond’s successful Black Restaurant Week (along with what seems like a hundred other initiatives), has been planning to run against 8th District rep Reva Trammell for years.

Robertson and Trammell both rely on old-school politicking and a venerable political network. In 2016, that was enough for Robertson to hold off another young challenger, Donald Moss; but her district, like the rest of the city, is changing. Robertson does not exactly have a list of big accomplishments or a prominent media presence; right now she doesn’t even have a campaign website. As the city, and her district, trends younger, can she maintain her hold on power?

And Trammell brings a history of controversy, including a recent quarantine-influenced dust-up where she revealed a racist figurine tucked away in a corner of her kitchen. After years of similar incidents, are enough people looking for change on the south side to vote her out?

The electoral landscape becomes even more uncertain in the light of COVID-19, with some candidates having trouble even getting signatures. How many people will vote, even with the rise of no-excuse absentee balloting? Who will vote?

I suspect the people who want to run will find a way to get on the ballot. As we play out the rest of this quarantine, let’s reward their efforts by starting to pay attention to these local races. It might not be better than Tiger King - although when folks like Reva are involved, we can’t rule anything out.